Seven days after a 0-2 home loss to Houston Dynamo, New England Revolution travel to BMO Field needing a response. Marko Mitrovic’s side still sit third in the Eastern Conference with 30 points, but Chicago Fire are breathing down their necks on 29 and have a game in hand. Toronto FC, anchored at 12th with 17 points, offer a chance to stop the bleeding, though the Reds have been stubborn opponents this season, and the two sides already played to a goalless draw at Gillette Stadium last month.
What’s at stake
New England’s third-place finish in the East currently puts them inside the top nine qualifying spots for the MLS playoffs, with the conference sending nine teams to the postseason. The gap between third and fourth is just one point, with Chicago Fire sitting on 29 from 17 games. A win at BMO Field would rebuild some breathing room before the Fire play their game in hand. Lose, and New England could drop out of the top three by the end of the weekend.
For Toronto, the arithmetic is blunter. Sitting 12th on 17 points, six points off the playoff line, Jason Hernandez’s side needs wins to stay relevant in the Eastern Conference race. Three draws in their last four league outings have produced zero goals and zero victories, a run that is slowly pushing them toward the outside looking in. A home win against a top-three side would be their most significant result of the season.
How they got here
New England’s last five reads W-D-D-L-L once you strip out the meaningless friendly. The 4-1 win over Atlanta on July 25 looks like an outlier now, sandwiched between draws with CF Montreal and Toronto and back-to-back defeats. The Houston result stung most: a 0-2 home loss in front of their own fans, and a performance that raised real questions about consistency at the back. Toronto, meanwhile, have not won since before their last five-game stretch began. Their last five show two losses and three draws, all of which came away from home. BMO Field is where they need to perform, and Saturday gives them that opportunity.
In the Eastern Conference, Nashville SC lead on 40 points and Inter Miami follow on 38, both pulling well clear of the chasing pack. New England’s 30 points leave them ten behind Nashville and eight behind Miami, so top spot is not the conversation here. The real battle is holding third ahead of Chicago and fending off New York City FC, who sit fifth on 26 points.
Key battle to watch
The central duel will play out between Toronto’s defensive block and New England’s ability to break it down. Toronto have drawn three of their last four, conceding just once across that stretch, so their defensive shape is hard to crack even if they are not winning games. New England, by contrast, have scored only two goals in their last four competitive outings combined. Carles Gil’s ability to find pockets between the lines and create from deep will be the decisive factor: if he can get on the ball in space, New England create; if Toronto’s midfield closes him down effectively, this has the look of another low-scoring, fractious affair between two sides that know each other very well.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
These two sides have drawn four of their last ten meetings, and their goalless stalemate just three weeks ago adds to the sense that neither finds the other easy to beat. Toronto’s defensive solidity at home could frustrate a New England side that has looked blunt going forward recently. The Revolution need points badly enough to push for a win, but this fixture has draw written all over it based on recent history and current form.
New England Revolution
Toronto FC
Carles Gil