Six days after brushing aside Toronto FC 3-1 at home, St. Louis City travel to Harrison looking like one of the Western Conference’s sharpest teams right now. Yoann Damet’s side sit third in the West on 44 points, locked in a tight battle for seeding with FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes just below them. New York Red Bulls, meanwhile, are eighth in the Eastern Conference on 33 points, sitting one spot above the wildcard line and one point clear of FC Cincinnati. Saturday night at Sports Illustrated Stadium is not a glamour fixture on paper, but for both clubs the three points carry genuine weight.
What’s at stake
St. Louis City are third in the Western Conference with 44 points from 26 games, level with FC Dallas in fourth and two points ahead of San Jose Earthquakes in fifth. The top seven in each conference earn a first-round bye into the round of 16; eighth and ninth drop into the wildcard round of 32. With that seeding line so tight, every road point St. Louis pick up could determine whether they host a playoff game or travel for one.
For the Red Bulls the calculation is simpler but no less pressing. Michael Bradley’s team are eighth in the East on 33 points, sharing that position with FC Cincinnati on the same total but with a game in hand going against New York. New York City FC sit ninth on 32 points. A slip here and the Red Bulls could find themselves out of the playoff positions entirely before the weekend is over. A win would give them some breathing room and, given their goal difference is already in the red at minus-14, they need results more than performances right now.
How they got here
St. Louis have won four of their last five across all competitions, including a 3-0 away win over Colorado Rapids in the US Open Cup and a 4-2 home victory over Minnesota United in MLS. Their only blemble in that run was a 2-2 draw at Portland. The Red Bulls have been patchier: back-to-back away wins over New York City FC and Columbus Crew are encouraging, but they lost to LAFC on the road and fell 3-1 at home to Philadelphia Union earlier in the same five-game stretch.
New York are eighth in the Eastern Conference on 33 points (9W-6D-11L), having conceded 48 goals in 26 games. St. Louis are third in the Western Conference on 44 points (12W-8D-6L), with 45 goals scored and 36 conceded. The gap between the two clubs in the overall standings reflects a real difference in consistency over the course of the season.
Key battle to watch
St. Louis have scored freely on the road this September, putting three past Vancouver and matching Portland at 2-2 away from home. New York’s defense has been their weak point all season, conceding 48 times in 26 games. If St. Louis can push high and force the Red Bulls’ backline into quick decisions, Damet’s attackers should find space. For Bradley’s side, the question is whether their midfield can disrupt St. Louis’s rhythm before the visitors get into their passing patterns. New York’s last two wins both came on the road with a compact shape; replicating that defensive discipline at home, against a team in form, will be the test.
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Our Prediction
St. Louis arrive in better form, with a more stable defensive record and goals coming from multiple positions. The Red Bulls have shown they can be stubborn on the road, but at home they have looked exposed at the back all season. Expect St. Louis to control stretches of this game, though New York’s urgency for points gives them enough motivation to make it competitive. A narrow St. Louis win or a draw feels like the most likely outcome.