A 2-0 defeat at Nashville SC thirteen days ago left Toronto FC with three straight losses and a lot of ground to make up in the Eastern Conference standings. Jason Hernandez’s side sits 13th with 29 points, four points clear of CF Montreal but four points adrift of the playoff places that begin at ninth. Saturday’s home fixture against their Canadian rivals is a chance to stop the bleeding on familiar turf. Montreal, under interim coach Philippe Eullaffroy, arrives in Toronto having beaten FC Cincinnati 3-1 last time out, a result that offered a brief glimpse of form in what has otherwise been a difficult season.
What’s at stake
The Eastern Conference qualifies nine teams for the MLS playoffs, and both clubs find themselves outside that line heading into Round 28. Toronto FC sits 13th on 29 points, four back from ninth-placed New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, both on 33. CF Montreal is 15th on 24 points, five points below Toronto and ten behind the final wild-card spot. Neither side is mathematically out of contention, but the gap is real and the window is narrowing.
A Toronto win would push the hosts to 32 points and put genuine pressure on the clubs just above them, while a Montreal victory would close the gap between the two Canadian sides to a single point and keep Eullaffroy’s team within touching distance of Toronto. A draw moves Montreal closer while giving Toronto relatively little. For the home side especially, dropping more points at BMO Field while rivals hold steady would make a late-season run look increasingly difficult.
How they got here
Toronto’s last five league outings tell a difficult story: losses at Nashville (0-2), at St. Louis City (1-3), and at Orlando City (0-3) bracket a home win over Nashville (2-1) and a 4-4 draw against Chicago Fire. That run of three straight defeats has come entirely on the road, which makes Saturday’s home match particularly important. Montreal’s recent form in MLS is similarly patchy: a 3-1 home win over Cincinnati is sandwiched around losses to Columbus Crew (0-2) and Colorado Rapids (0-1), plus a defeat at home to Charlotte. Their win over FC Cincinnati last round snapped a run of three straight losses in league play.
In the Eastern Conference, Toronto sits 13th on 29 points from 27 games, with a record of 6 wins, 11 draws and 10 losses. They have conceded 51 goals this season, a number that has weighed on their standing all year. Montreal, also with 6 wins but only 6 draws against 15 losses, holds 15th place on 24 points. The top of the conference is distant: Nashville SC lead on 60 points, meaning both clubs have had nothing to do with the title race for some time. The fight is purely about squeezing into the playoff picture.
Key battle to watch
Toronto’s midfield has been stretched badly on the road, but at BMO Field Hernandez’s setup tends to be more compact. The key matchup will be in the center of the park, where Montreal’s Djordje Mihailovic, listed in Toronto’s squad, would more naturally be on the other side of this rivalry, but it is Montreal’s midfield trio of Fabrizio Amaya, Willy Carmona and Sean Piette that will try to control tempo and feed their attackers. If Toronto can win the second-ball battle and get their wide players running in behind, the home side has the quality to be dangerous. Montreal, however, have shown they can press high and convert when space opens up, as Cincinnati found out. Whichever midfield imposes itself early is likely to shape the result.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Toronto’s home record gives them the edge here, and the visit comes at a good time given Montreal’s inconsistency away from home. Hernandez’s side badly needs a performance to arrest the losing streak, and BMO Field has historically been a difficult venue for Montreal. Expect Toronto to edge a tight match, though Montreal’s 3-1 win last round shows they are capable of breaking out when given space.