This Wednesday, our heads are going to explode. The final matchday of the Champions League regular season will feature no fewer than 18 games. And aside from Arsenal and Bayern Munich, who are already guaranteed a top-two finish, the remaining 34 teams will all have something major at stake. Here’s an overview of the key storylines in what promises to be a wild night.
Securing a top 8 spot
At the heart of the top 8, Arsenal and Bayern are already assured of finishing there, which makes their respective matches (against Kairat Almaty for the London side and PSV for the Germans) largely meaningless in terms of stakes.
The same could be said for Real Madrid and Liverpool. Both teams sit on 15 points and don’t need to go all out in their final fixtures.
For Tottenham, reigning champions PSG, Newcastle, and Chelsea, the stakes are much higher. These teams are vulnerable, with eight clubs clustered on 13 points. PSG and Newcastle face each other directly, and the winner will be guaranteed a place in the round of 16. Chelsea will start the night in a qualifying position, but a win is mandatory for the London club.
Five other teams are also honking their horns, trying to break into the top 8.
Assaulting the top 8
In addition to PSG, Newcastle, and Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, and Atlético Madrid are all sitting on 13 points. These teams must win and hope for slip-ups from those ahead of them to secure a top-8 finish. In such a tight table, goal difference is the primary separating factor.
From 14th to 18th place, dreaming of the top 8 is still theoretically possible, but it would require multiple favorable results and therefore remains highly unlikely. This group includes Inter Milan, Juventus, Dortmund, Galatasaray, and Qarabag.
Surviving
From 19th to 32nd place, the objective is simple: survive. Merely qualifying for the February playoff round would already be a success. From Marseille to Olympiacos, these teams are in strong positions to secure a playoff spot. Meanwhile, from 25th to 32nd place, calculations are pointless—only victory will do. This applies to teams such as Napoli, Benfica, and Club Brugge.
Matches to Watch
Three matches stand out in particular due to the alignment of stakes.
Napoli vs. Chelsea pits a team that must win to stay alive against a Chelsea side aiming to secure a top-8 finish and a direct place in the round of 16. PSG vs. Newcastle is a clash between two of the highest-ranked teams facing each other head-on. And finally, for a truly dramatic encounter, Club Brugge vs. Marseille brings together two teams that must win to survive.