Four goals against Kauno Žalgiris in the Conference League two days ago gave Brighton another clean sheet and another 90 minutes of confidence to carry into Sunday’s Premier League fixture at the Amex. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have not lost a competitive match since early September, and at third in the table with 13 points from six games, they are starting to look like genuine participants in the top-four conversation. Crystal Palace arrive on the south coast having just dropped a 3-2 decision to Lyon in the Europa League, a result that does nothing to settle what has been an inconsistent start to their domestic campaign.
What’s at stake
Brighton sit third in the Premier League, two points behind Arsenal and eight behind leaders Manchester City, who have a perfect seven-from-seven record. The top four earn Champions League places this season, and with Chelsea level on 13 points in fourth and Liverpool one point back in fifth, the gap between a Champions League berth and a Europa League spot is paper-thin. A win on Sunday would give Brighton a cushion over that cluster before any of those rivals play this weekend.
For Crystal Palace, the arithmetic is less dramatic but the optics matter. Pierre Sage’s side are 13th on seven points from six games, six points above the relegation zone, and a defeat here would leave them seven points adrift of the European places with the table beginning to take shape. Winning at Brighton, however, would pull them level on points with fifth-placed Liverpool and revive what has been a stalled campaign.
How they got here
Brighton’s last five competitive results read W, W, W, D, L, with the single loss coming back in mid-September. Since then, Hürzeler’s team beat Coventry 5-0 away, won the League Cup at Manchester United 3-2, beat Arsenal 3-0 at the Amex, won at Sunderland 2-0, and rolled Kauno Žalgiris 4-0 in Europe on Thursday. They have scored 18 league goals and conceded just five, the second-best defensive record at the top of the table. Crystal Palace’s recent run tells a different story: a heavy 4-0 win over Lech Poznan in Europe, then a draw at Leeds, a 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest in the league, and then Thursday’s loss in Lyon. The Glazier form reads W, D, L, W, L over five, which places them firmly in the inconsistent middle of the Premier League rather than on any upward curve.
Brighton are third with 13 points. Chelsea are fourth on the same points total but with a game more played, and Liverpool are fifth on 12. Crystal Palace are 13th on seven points, six behind the sides just outside the European places.
Key battle to watch
The contest in midfield between Brighton’s Matt O’Riley and Mats Wieffer against Palace’s Adam Wharton and Jefferson Lerma will likely decide the tempo of the match. Brighton have dominated possession in their recent wins, allowing them to press high and recover quickly. Palace’s best result this season, the 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest, came when they were allowed to transition at pace through Jesurun Rak-Sakyi and Yeremy Pino in behind. If O’Riley and Wieffer can pin Palace’s midfield back and deny those transition opportunities, Brighton should be able to control the game. If Palace can disrupt Brighton’s build-up and spring the press, they have the attackers to make it uncomfortable.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
The head-to-head leans slightly toward Palace in recent memory, with three wins from the last ten meetings and a 1-0 victory at the Amex as recently as February, but Brighton’s form, home advantage, and defensive solidity make them clear favorites here. A Palace side that just dropped points in Lyon will find it hard to suppress an attack that has scored 18 times in six league games. Expect Brighton to control large portions of possession and find a way through, though Palace’s counter-attacking threat means this is unlikely to be a walkover.
Brighton
Crystal Palace