Four days after getting torn apart 5-0 by Philadelphia Union on the road, FC Cincinnati return to TQL Stadium with something to prove. That result was as bad as the scoreline suggests, leaving Pat Noonan’s side seventh in the Eastern Conference on 31 points after 23 games. Charlotte arrive with an entirely different mood: Dean Smith’s team won 2-1 at CF Montreal three days ago and sit fifth on 39 points, eight clear of Cincinnati with a game in hand over several rivals. The gap between these two sides in the table makes Saturday’s match a test of character for the hosts as much as a contest for conference positioning.
What’s at stake
Both clubs are inside the top nine of the Eastern Conference, which is where you need to be to reach the playoffs in MLS. Cincinnati are seventh on 31 points; Charlotte are fifth on 39. The top nine in the East qualify for the postseason, so neither side is in danger of missing out based on current standings, but the gap between them matters when it comes to seeding. Charlotte are only one point behind third-place New England Revolution (40 pts) and could move as high as third with a win, depending on other results. Cincinnati are level on points with sixth-place Orlando City SC and need to start converting draws and losses into wins if they want to protect their seeding.
A Charlotte win would put eight points between the two clubs and largely settle any realistic conversation about Cincinnati catching them before the end of the regular season. For the hosts, a win would be more than three points on the table; it would be a signal that the Philadelphia disaster was an aberration rather than a trend. Cincinnati have won just one of their last five league matches, with two draws and two losses. Dropping further points at home against a team directly above them in the standings would only deepen the questions around Noonan’s side.
How they got here
Cincinnati’s last five reads: L, L, D, D, W. The lone win came against New York City FC on August 19 (2-1 at home), but that has been followed by a draw with Seattle Sounders, a 4-0 hiding at Nashville, a goalless draw with DC United at home, and then the collapse at Philadelphia. The goals-against column tells its own story: Cincinnati have conceded 56 league goals, the worst defensive record of any side currently inside the playoff positions in the East. Charlotte, by contrast, have conceded only 33, and their last five shows: W, D, W, W, D. Back-to-back wins over DC United (3-1) and Atlanta United (2-0) in August gave them confidence, and the 2-1 road win at Montreal carried that into September.
Charlotte sit fifth on 39 points with 24 games played. Nashville SC lead the Eastern Conference on 53 points, with Inter Miami second on 44. New England Revolution are third on 40, Chicago Fire fourth on 39 (one game in hand over Charlotte). Cincinnati are seventh on 31 points from 23 games, meaning they have a game in hand on some rivals but need results to go their way. Orlando City SC are immediately above them on 31 points from 24 games, which means Cincinnati could overtake Orlando with a win on Saturday but cannot afford to keep dropping points.
Key battle to watch
Charlotte’s defensive shape will be tested by however Cincinnati set up going forward, but the more telling duel may be in midfield. Cincinnati’s Evander and Przemyslaw Bucha need to control tempo and reduce the kind of spaces that allowed Philadelphia to run riot earlier this week. Charlotte’s Luc de la Torre has been one of the more complete central midfielders in the East this season, and if he dictates the rhythm from the middle, Cincinnati’s already-porous backline could be exposed again. The pressure is on Cincinnati’s midfield to stay compact and force Charlotte wide rather than through the center.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Cincinnati’s defensive numbers are alarming and the 5-0 result at Philadelphia is too recent to ignore. Charlotte come in with the better form, the better defensive record, and a clear points advantage. Noonan’s side have shown they can win at home, but this squad looks short of the consistency needed to contain a Charlotte side that has conceded just 33 goals all season. Expect Charlotte to control enough of the match to come away with at least a point, with a narrow away win the most likely outcome.