A 1-1 draw at Real Salt Lake three days ago left Minnesota United FC with a familiar problem: they have enough to stay in the playoff picture, but not enough to feel safe there. Cameron Knowles’ side sit ninth in the Western Conference on 25 points, tied with Colorado Rapids above them and just one point clear of the teams outside the top nine. Now they host Atlanta United FC, an Eastern Conference side sitting 15th in their own table on 15 points, who travel to Allianz Field having beaten the New York Red Bulls 2-1 last Saturday. The gap in league position is wide, but Atlanta’s recent confidence makes this a more interesting test than the standings suggest.
What’s at stake
Minnesota are ninth in the Western Conference, which is the final qualifying position for the MLS playoffs. The top nine clubs in each conference advance, so Knowles’ side are currently on the right side of the line, but only just. With 25 points from 19 matches, they share that total with Colorado Rapids in eighth, and Portland Timbers (24 points), Seattle Sounders (24 points) and San Diego (24 points) are all within one point behind. This is as tight a playoff race as it gets, and dropping more points at home could see the Loons slip out of the postseason places.
A win for Minnesota pushes them clear of the teams immediately below and gives them breathing room heading into the final stretch of the regular season. For Atlanta, the context is different: they sit 15th in the Eastern Conference on 15 points from 19 games, well outside the nine qualifying positions in their conference. A result in Saint Paul would offer Gerardo Martino’s side a confidence boost and some momentum, even if their own playoff math is a separate equation entirely.
How they got here
Minnesota’s last five results across all competitions read: D (1-1 at Real Salt Lake), W (3-1 vs Atlante FC, Leagues Cup), D (0-0 at Tigres UANL, Leagues Cup), L (1-2 vs FC Juarez, Leagues Cup), D (1-1 vs San Diego). The league form column tells the story: DDDLD. Knowles’ side have won six times all season but have drawn seven, which is why 25 points from 19 games feels both respectable and frustrating. They are scoring, but they are also conceding, with 21 goals for and 26 against. Atlanta, meanwhile, enter on the back of a 2-1 home win over New York Red Bulls on August 15, their first win since mid-July after a run that included losses at New England (1-4) and at Philadelphia (2-3). Their recent league sequence reads WLLDL.
In the Western Conference, Minnesota find themselves 12 points behind leaders Vancouver Whitecaps (37 points) and 10 behind second-placed Houston Dynamo (35 points). The race for the top spots is out of reach, but the race for the ninth and final playoff berth is where every point matters. Atlanta, positioned 15th in the East, are 10 points back of DC United in ninth place in their own conference.
Key battle to watch
Atlanta’s attack, featuring Miguel Almirón as the most prominent creative name in the squad, will look to exploit Minnesota’s defensive vulnerability, a backline that has conceded 26 goals in 19 games. Minnesota will need to be tighter at home than they have been on the road. The Loons’ midfield, with Julian Gressel and Joaquin Pereyra as central figures in transition, will have to limit Atlanta’s ability to get Almirón on the ball in pockets of space. If Minnesota can control tempo and limit turnovers in central areas, they have the quality to find the three points. If Atlanta can spring Almirón early on the counter, the Loons’ defensive record suggests they are capable of being hurt.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Minnesota’s home form and the pressure of protecting a playoff spot should be enough to see them control large portions of this game, but their tendency to draw rather than win is a real pattern this season. Atlanta arrive with some confidence after beating New York Red Bulls, and Almirón gives them a genuine threat in transition. Expect Minnesota to edge toward a narrow win or another draw, with the Loons’ defensive softness the biggest question mark.
Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
Miguel Almirón