Two draws in their last two outings have FC Dallas sitting fourth in the Western Conference on 44 points, level with Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City just five points behind Vancouver Whitecaps at the top. Los Angeles FC arrive in Frisco three points back in sixth, still looking for a result that would tighten the logjam in the West. With both clubs locked inside the top nine and the playoff picture tightening, Saturday night at Toyota Stadium carries real weight.
What’s at stake
Both FC Dallas and LAFC sit inside the Western Conference’s nine qualifying spots for the MLS playoffs, but the margin for error is shrinking. Dallas are fourth on 44 points, tied on points with second-placed Houston Dynamo and third-placed St. Louis City. LAFC are sixth on 41 points, three behind Dallas and one behind San Jose Earthquakes in fifth. Colorado Rapids in seventh have 36 points, so the buffer above the playoff cutoff exists, but it is not comfortable enough to coast.
A Dallas win would push them to 47 points and potentially separate them from the cluster just below the top three, giving Eric Quill’s side a real shot at a higher seed and home advantage deep into the playoffs. For LAFC, a road victory would bring them to 44 points and pull them level with Dallas, suddenly turning a three-point deficit into dead heat. Marc Dos Santos cannot afford many more evenings like the 1-3 loss at Sporting Kansas City from two weeks ago if LAFC want to finish in the top six and avoid the earlier playoff rounds.
How they got here
Dallas have won three of their last four before the draw against Austin last weekend, including a 4-3 thriller against Sporting Kansas City and back-to-back wins over Minnesota United and Portland Timbers. The 0-0 at home to Austin was flat but did not dent the points total. LAFC’s recent run is patchier: a 0-0 at DC United, two draws at Real Salt Lake and San Jose either side of a 2-0 home win over New York Red Bulls, with the Kansas City loss in the middle. Two wins from their last five shows a side that has not found consistent rhythm.
Dallas are fourth in the Western Conference on 44 points from 26 games, level with Houston and St. Louis but with goal difference separating the trio. LAFC are sixth on 41 points from 27 games, already a game played more than most of the clubs around them, which makes every remaining fixture count a little more.
Key battle to watch
P. Musa against the LAFC backline is the matchup that could decide this game. With 18 league goals, Musa is second only to Lionel Messi on the MLS scoring chart and has been the engine behind Dallas’s goals-heavy play, a side that has scored 49 and conceded 42 in 26 matches. LAFC have allowed just 29 goals all season, the tightest defensive record in this part of the table, so Marc Dos Santos’s defenders will need to be organized against a forward in sharp form. If Musa finds the spaces he has been exploiting in recent weeks, LAFC’s three-point cushion over Colorado starts to look a lot more precarious.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
History favors LAFC in this fixture, with six wins from the last ten meetings, but Dallas have the home advantage and a forward in Musa who is in the form of his career. LAFC’s defensive solidity, 29 goals conceded all season, should keep this tight, and a draw is a reasonable outcome given both sides have been drawing regularly in September. Dallas’s home crowd and Musa’s threat give the edge to a narrow home win if the match opens up.