A 1-3 defeat at Getafe last weekend left Sevilla looking over their shoulder at a cluster of teams with identical or near-identical points tallies. Luis García Plaza’s side sit sixth in La Liga on 17 points, occupying the last European spot, but Athletic Club (15 points, one game in hand), Deportivo La Coruna (14 points) and a group of five teams locked on 12 points are all breathing down their necks. Friday night at home is a chance to rebuild some breathing room. The visitors, Alaves, are right in that chasing pack.
What’s at stake
Sixth place in La Liga currently comes with a Conference League qualification berth, and Sevilla are sitting in it. The gap between them and seventh-placed Athletic Club is just two points, though Athletic have a game in hand. Alaves arrive in 11th on 12 points, five behind Sevilla. Win here and they leapfrog several sides and put real pressure on the Europa League places above. Lose and they remain stuck in the murky mid-table block where seven teams are separated by just three points.
For Sevilla, the equation is straightforward: a home defeat would likely drop them out of the European spots by the time the weekend is done, depending on other results. García Plaza cannot afford to let the Getafe loss become a two-game slide. For Alaves, Quique Sanchez Flores knows his team has picked up just one win in their last five La Liga outings. Three points here would not only close the gap on Sevilla but offer the kind of confidence boost a side in their current form desperately needs.
How they got here
Sevilla’s last five in all competitions read W-W-L-W-L going back from the Getafe defeat: a Copa del Rey win at Hortaleza, a home 2-0 over Osasuna, a 1-4 thrashing at Real Madrid, and a 3-3 draw at Levante. The pattern is inconsistent; they look capable of beating mid-table sides at home but porous against quality opposition and prone to bad days on the road. Alaves, meanwhile, have gone L-D-L-L-D in their last four La Liga matches, the low point a 1-6 hammering at Barcelona. Their Copa del Rey trip to Anaitasuna was postponed, so their last competitive action of note was that Nou Camp capitulation.
Sevilla’s 17 points from 11 games puts them two ahead of seventh place, while Barcelona lead the division on 30, with Atletico Madrid second on 28 and Real Madrid third on 27. The title race is a three-horse affair at the top. Sevilla’s interest is purely in holding their European place. Alaves, on 12 points, are part of a five-team logjam from ninth to 13th, all level on 12 points.
Key battle to watch
Alaves have conceded 17 goals in 11 games and have struggled to hold defensive shape on the road, shipping two or more in losses to Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid. Sevilla’s attack has 17 goals to its name, respectable numbers for a mid-table side, but their defensive record (19 conceded) means this could be an open game. The midfield control battle will likely decide it: if Carles Alena and Denis Suarez can keep the ball moving for Alaves and limit Sevilla’s transitions, Quique Sanchez Flores’ side have a chance. If Sevilla’s midfielders, including Lucien Agoume and Grzegorz Kochorashvili, dictate the tempo, the home side should have enough to win a scrappy but consequential evening.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
The head-to-head record favors Alaves, who have four wins to Sevilla’s two in the last 10 meetings, and three of the last four La Liga encounters between these sides have finished level or gone Alaves’ way. That said, Sevilla have the home advantage and a genuine incentive to respond after the Getafe loss. Expect a tight match where Sevilla make enough of their home record to grind out a narrow win, though Alaves are streaky enough to snatch something from it.