A 2-2 draw at Real Salt Lake four days ago stretched Los Angeles FC’s winless run to four matches, a sequence that has quietly eroded their buffer in the Western Conference standings. Marc Dos Santos’s side sit third on 37 points, level with FC Dallas and St. Louis City just below them and with Vancouver Whitecaps six points clear at the top. New York Red Bulls arrive at BMO Stadium on Wednesday having picked up just one win in their last five, a side with little left to play for in the West but enough quality to make life difficult for a home team badly in need of three points.
What’s at stake
LAFC occupy third place in the Western Conference on 37 points, tied on points with fourth-placed FC Dallas and fifth-placed St. Louis City, both of whom have a game in hand. The top nine in the conference qualify for the MLS playoffs, so postseason football is not in doubt, but the seeding is. Third place earns a direct berth in the round of 16, while finishing lower risks a wild-card round. With FC Dallas and St. Louis City breathing down their necks, LAFC cannot afford another dropped evening at home.
A win keeps them third and firms up the gap to the teams behind. A draw or defeat, and one or both of those clubs could leapfrog them before the next round is played. For New York Red Bulls, tenth in the Eastern Conference on 27 points, the trip across the country carries no mathematical weight in their own race, but Michael Bradley’s side have lost three of their last five and will be looking to stabilize before the playoff push in the East intensifies.
How they got here
LAFC’s recent form reads DDLL across their last four before the Salt Lake draw, and the pattern is hard to ignore. They were held scoreless by DC United on August 29, drew 1-1 with Portland at home, and lost back-to-back to Colorado Rapids and San Diego before that. Goals have dried up; the attack that looked threatening earlier in the season has stuttered. Son Heung-Min and Denis Bouanga are both in the squad, but neither has carried the team through this rough patch. The Red Bulls, meanwhile, went down 3-1 to Philadelphia Union at home at the end of August, drew with Chicago Fire and were shut out by Seattle on the road in their most recent outing. Their form over the last five reads DLDLL, a run that has kept them outside the playoff positions in the East.
LAFC are third in the West with 37 points from 24 games. FC Dallas in fourth and St. Louis City in fifth each sit on 37 points but with a game in hand, making this fixture more pressing than the table position alone suggests. New York Red Bulls are tenth in the Eastern Conference, also on 27 points, two points behind ninth-placed Philadelphia Union with the same number of games played.
Key battle to watch
The central question is whether LAFC’s attack can rediscover its edge against a Red Bulls side that has conceded 46 goals in 23 Eastern Conference games, the worst defensive record among the playoff contenders in the East. Son Heung-Min operating in behind the Red Bulls’ high defensive line could be the difference. If LAFC’s midfield, anchored by Timothee Tillman and the supporting cast around him, can move the ball quickly through the lines, they have the personnel to expose New York’s backline. The Red Bulls’ best chance of causing problems will come through transitional moments, with Emil Forsberg and Cameron Harper capable of hurting a home defense that has looked vulnerable on the counter during this winless run.
Key Stats
Match Context
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Our Prediction
LAFC’s form is a concern, but BMO Stadium and a home crowd should provide enough of a lift against a Red Bulls side in worse shape on the road. The hosts’ defensive record (24 goals conceded in 24 Western Conference games) gives a reasonable base to build on, and a return to winning ways at home feels more likely than another dropped result. Expect LAFC to edge a low-scoring match, though another draw would not be a shock given how both teams have been playing.