Three points separate FC Dallas from San Jose Earthquakes in the Western Conference standings, and both clubs know a result at Toyota Stadium on Sunday could shift the playoff seeding picture with the regular season drawing toward a close. Dallas sit third with 51 points, San Jose fourth with 48, and neither side has managed to pull clear of the pack below them. The last time these teams shared a field, FC Dallas came away 3-2 winners at San Jose back in May, a result that underlines how tight this rivalry has been.
What’s at stake
Both clubs are already in playoff position in the Western Conference, where nine spots qualify for the postseason. The real fight here is about where each team lands in that bracket. Dallas at third and San Jose at fourth are close enough to second-place St. Louis City (also on 51 points) that a win could mean a higher seed and the home-field advantage that comes with it deeper in the playoffs. Houston Dynamo sit fifth on 47 points, just one behind San Jose, so neither team can afford to drop points and watch the teams below close the gap.
A Dallas win would move them level with St. Louis City on points and consolidate their grip on a top-three seed. For San Jose, a victory would pull them to within three of Dallas and St. Louis, giving them a realistic shot at pushing into that upper tier. A draw keeps the status quo but benefits Houston and Los Angeles FC, who sit fifth and sixth respectively and are both within striking range of San Jose.
How they got here
Dallas come in off a 2-2 draw at Houston seven days ago, a result that extended their recent inconsistency. Their last five reads: draw, win, loss, win, draw. The win over Seattle Sounders at home was a positive sign, but the loss at Charlotte and the dropped points in Houston show a team capable of beating good sides and then slipping against lesser ones. San Jose’s form has been defined by draws: three straight heading into last week, before they shared the points again with Nashville in a 1-1 at home. Their only win in five came against Portland on September 27, a 3-1 at home that briefly looked like a turning point.
Dallas are third in the Western Conference with 51 points from 30 games (14 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses). San Jose are fourth with 48 points (13-9-8). Vancouver Whitecaps lead the West on 55 points. The gap between Dallas and the top of the table is four points, while San Jose are seven back of Vancouver. Given how compressed the table is between second and sixth, Sunday’s match functions as a direct head-to-head over playoff positioning.
Key battle to watch
P. Musa has been one of the most productive forwards in MLS this season, sitting second in the league scoring charts with 20 goals, only behind Lionel Messi’s 25. How San Jose’s backline handles him will likely determine the game. Their defensive record (42 goals conceded in 30 games) is better than Dallas’s (47 against), suggesting Bruce Arena’s side have been harder to break down. If Musa can find pockets between San Jose’s lines and get service from midfield, Dallas will fancy their chances at Toyota Stadium, where they have shown the ability to grind out results. If San Jose keep him quiet, their draw-heavy discipline could earn them a point and maintain the pressure on the teams above.
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Our Prediction
San Jose’s tendency to draw, having picked up points without winning in four of their last five, suggests they are defensively organized but short on the cutting edge to beat a Dallas side at home. Musa gives FC Dallas a genuine threat that San Jose have not faced much lately, and Toyota Stadium has been a decent environment for Eric Quill’s team this season. A narrow Dallas win feels like the most likely outcome, though another draw would surprise nobody given how evenly matched these sides have been all year.