Seven days after a 1-3 home defeat to Real Salt Lake, Sporting Kansas City return to Children’s Mercy Park in no better shape. Raphaël Wicky’s side have won just once in their last five outings and sit 15th in the Western Conference on 22 points, a long way from the nine spots that earn a playoff berth. Visitors Austin are not in a position to gloat: Davy Arnaud’s interim side comes in off a 1-2 home loss to Vancouver Whitecaps and has lost three straight. This is a meeting of two clubs whose postseason hopes are firmly in the rearview mirror, playing for pride and momentum with the regular season winding down.
What’s at stake
The Western Conference sends nine teams to the MLS playoffs. Sporting KC sit 15th with 22 points from 30 games, while Austin are 14th on 31. The ninth-placed Colorado Rapids are on 39 points. The gap between Austin and a playoff berth is eight points, and for Sporting KC it is 17. Neither side can realistically reach that cut-off line. What remains is a chance to avoid finishing at the bottom of the conference and to give fringe players meaningful minutes before the season closes.
A win for Sporting KC would be a small lift after a run that included a 0-4 loss at Nashville and the 1-3 reverse at home to Salt Lake. For Austin under interim boss Arnaud, three league defeats in a row and a goals-against tally of 56 this season underline how badly the side’s form has collapsed. Getting a positive result on the road would at least offer the squad something to build on heading into the final stretch.
How they got here
Sporting KC’s last five reads W-L-D-L-L (most recent last): a 2-0 win at Houston on September 27 was followed by road losses to Seattle and at home to Portland and Salt Lake, sandwiched around a 3-3 draw with Portland at Children’s Mercy Park. They have conceded 75 league goals this season, by far the worst defensive record in the Western Conference. Austin’s last five is even more alarming in the results column: D-D-L-L-L, with losses to Nashville (1-4 at home), LAFC (1-3 away) and Vancouver (1-2 at home). The Texans have not won since their 3-3 draw with San Diego on September 27.
Sporting KC are 15th in the Western Conference on 22 points (6 wins, 4 draws, 20 losses). Austin are a rung above in 14th on 31 points (7 wins, 10 draws, 13 losses). The top of the table is out of reach for both: Vancouver Whitecaps lead on 55 points, with St. Louis City and FC Dallas tied on 51.
Key battle to watch
Austin’s attack, built around Mátyás Uzuni and Fabián Torres, will test a Sporting KC backline that has shipped 75 goals in 30 games. The home side’s defensive structure under Wicky has been its biggest vulnerability all season, and Austin, despite their recent poor run, still carry a threat going forward with 38 goals scored. Whether Arnaud can get his forwards firing after three straight losses will likely decide this one. If Sporting KC’s backline holds firm for once, the hosts have enough at home, as shown by their 1-2 head-to-head win over Austin in May, to take something from the game.
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Our Prediction
Both sides are in the middle of form slumps and have nothing material to play for in the standings, which makes this match hard to call with confidence. Austin have historically had the edge in this fixture, winning five of the last ten meetings, but their current three-game losing streak and the fact that Sporting KC won the reverse fixture 2-1 in May points to a competitive, low-scoring contest. A narrow home win or a draw feels like the most likely outcome, given how difficult both defenses are to break down when motivation is uncertain.