Five days after beating Wisla Krakow 3-1 in the Ekstraklasa, Lech Poznan head to Lisbon for a Europa League fixture that looks, on paper, almost unwinnable. With just one point from three group-stage matches and a goal difference of minus-eight, Niels Frederiksen’s side are bottom of the 36-team table and badly need a result to keep any hope of advancement alive. Standing in their way is a Benfica side under Marco Silva that has not dropped a point in this competition, scoring ten goals and conceding just two across three wins.
What’s at stake
Benfica sit first in the UEFA Europa League table with nine points from three games, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen, Bournemouth, and Ferencvarosi TC at the summit. The top 24 teams advance to the knockout round play-offs, so the Eagles are well positioned, but the standings remain fluid enough that a slip against a struggling opponent would be noticed. Lech Poznan, in 32nd place on a single point, are mathematically still in contention for one of those 24 spots, though the gap they face is steep with five matchdays remaining.
For Benfica, a fifth straight win would consolidate their lead at the top and move them closer to sealing a direct path into the last-16, with the hosts already sitting first in the standings on nine points from three matches. For Lech, the equation is simpler: they need wins, and they need them now. Another defeat would leave them stranded in the bottom tier of the table with the gap to 24th place growing harder to close by the week.
How they got here
Benfica arrive in exceptional domestic and European form. Their last five results read W-W-W-W-W across three competitions, including a 4-1 dismantling of Celtic and a 4-1 win at Omonia Nicosia in the Europa League, plus a 4-1 cup win over Gil Vicente and a 2-1 league victory at Santa Clara. The most recent outing, a 1-0 home win against Alverca in the Primeira Liga just two days ago, kept the rhythm going even if the scoreline was tighter than the previous performances. Marco Silva’s squad looks settled and clinical. Lech’s route here is a contrast. Their Europa League record reads one draw (1-1 against Sunderland) and two losses, with one goal scored and nine conceded in the competition. Domestically they have been competitive, winning 3-1 against Wisla Krakow and 2-1 at Legia Warszawa, but those results belong to a different context entirely.
In the Europa League table, Benfica are first with nine points. Lech Poznan are 32nd with one point, the same total as Celje and Hapoel Beer Sheva, with a negative goal difference of eight in three appearances.
Key battle to watch
Benfica’s attack has been the standout feature of their European campaign, with ten goals scored in three matches. The question for Lech is whether their defensive shape can limit the damage and allow their forwards any foothold on the counter. Frederiksen’s side showed in the Ekstraklasa they can score and press high, beating Legia away and putting three past Wisla at home, but the Europa League has exposed them at a different level of intensity. If Lech’s midfield, which includes Fabio Jagiello and Ali Gholizadeh, can disrupt Benfica’s build-up through the center, they give themselves a chance of making it competitive. If Benfica’s forwards, a group that includes Vangelis Pavlidis, Dodi Lukebakio, and Andreas Schjelderup, find their usual rhythm early, it could be a long night for the Polish visitors.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
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Our Prediction
The history between these clubs tells one story: Benfica beat Lech 4-0 and 4-2 when they met in the 2020-21 Europa League group stage. With the Portuguese side carrying the form they have now and Lech arriving with one point and a minus-eight goal difference in this competition, another comfortable home win looks the most logical outcome. The only real question is whether Lech can avoid a heavy defeat and take something away from the night, perhaps a goal that keeps morale intact for their remaining fixtures.