Five days after a 1-3 defeat at Los Angeles FC left a sour taste at the end of their road trip, Minnesota United return to Allianz Field looking to close a difficult regular season on a high. San Jose Earthquakes arrive in the Twin Cities sitting third in the Western Conference on 52 points, only one point ahead of St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo, with a playoff seeding still far from settled. For Minnesota, 12th and 11 points off the top nine, this one is about pride and momentum. For San Jose, it carries a little more urgency.
What’s at stake
San Jose sit third in the Western Conference with 52 points after 33 games, three points clear of both St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo in fourth and fifth. All nine spots in the Western Conference qualify for the postseason, so the Earthquakes are already in. What is still undecided is the seeding: third place earns a first-round bye into the Round of 16, while teams below eighth enter the Round of 32. Dropping points here could hand St. Louis or Houston an opening to close the gap on the final weekend.
A San Jose win locks up third and reduces the pressure heading into the final round. For Minnesota, a win would lift them to 44 points and put some late-season gloss on a campaign that has them sitting outside the playoff picture. Coach Cameron Knowles will want his side to finish with something to build on, and three points at Allianz Field would be exactly that.
How they got here
Minnesota have been in decent form despite that LAFC loss. Their last five reads WWDWD (most recent first after including that result): wins over Los Angeles FC away, Sporting Kansas City at home, and St. Louis City at home, with draws against Houston and Colorado on the road. It is a sequence that shows real resilience over a grinding stretch of the schedule, even if the 1-3 scoreline in Los Angeles was not flattering. San Jose’s recent form is patchier: WDLDD going back from their 2-1 home win over Real Salt Lake last week. That victory sandwiched a loss at FC Dallas (0-3) and a pair of draws. Bruce Arena’s side has not been convincing, but they have done enough to hold their position.
Minnesota sit 12th in the Western Conference on 41 points. San Jose are third on 52, nine points and two spots above the cutoff between the Round of 16 and Round of 32 entries. Vancouver Whitecaps lead the conference on 61 points, with FC Dallas second on 55.
Key battle to watch
San Jose’s midfield, anchored by Ian Harkes and Elliot Löwen, will need to control tempo against a Minnesota side that has shown it can score freely at home. The Loons put up three goals against both Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City in recent home games, and their attack through Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Tomas Chancalay has looked sharp. If San Jose’s midfield lets Minnesota set the pace at Allianz Field, Bruce Arena’s backline could be exposed the same way it was in Dallas.
Key Stats
Match Context
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Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
History favors Minnesota in this matchup: they have won five of the last ten meetings, including a 5-1 demolition of San Jose at Allianz Field earlier this season. San Jose’s inconsistent run of form over the past month makes them a fragile favorite on the road, and Minnesota’s attack has looked sharp enough at home to cause problems. Expect a competitive game where the Earthquakes may settle for a draw that keeps their seeding intact rather than chasing three points in hostile territory.