Four questions ahead the AFCON knockout stage

After a group stage with few major surprises, the knockout rounds are set to begin in Morocco. The pressure on the Atlas Lions, questions surrounding Mohamed Salah, and the Senegalese favorites — all of this will be discussed in this preview of the Round of 16.

Could Algeria Be the Surprise Package?

Petković has restored order and given responsibility back to his key players. Without being the flamboyant Manchester City winger, Riyad Mahrez has embraced his role as captain, and the Al Ahli player has already scored three goals. He is clearly leading this team. Mandi and Bensebaini, the unfortunate defensive pairing of AFCON 2021 and 2023, have been solid and reassuring, particularly in the physical and scrappy match against Burkina Faso. In midfield, work rate, movement, intensity, and technical quality are provided by the Boudaoui–Maza duo, protected by a revitalized Ismaël Bennacer in the holding role.

On top of that, Algeria have depth. Their outstanding third match against Equatorial Guinea showed that replacements can make an impact. Hadj Moussa, Abdelli (targeted by Lyon and Marseille), Belaïd, and Chaïbi can all bring energy and quality off the bench.

Placed in the same side of the bracket as Morocco, Nigeria, and Cameroon, Algeria will face a tough road to the final. But without the favorite’s label and freed from the psychological weight of recent failures, Algeria can surprise — just as they did in 2019. Watch out for the Fennecs, and as the saying goes: “One, Two, Three — Viva l’Algérie.”

Has Morocco Found Themselves Again?

Regragui criticized and then booed, players failing to meet expectations like Saïbari or Yamiq (at fault against Mali), and a game plan overly reliant on Brahim Díaz’s accelerations. Between the draw against Mali’s Eagles and the match against Zambia, Morocco went through a period of serious doubt.

Masked by the relative weakness of opponents in friendlies and in their World Cup 2026 qualifying group, their 19-game winning streak may have hidden structural flaws in Morocco’s play. Lacking inspiration against Mali, Morocco failed to shine and even showed vulnerabilities that could have led to defeat. Sofyan Amrabat’s lack of security, surprising given his World Cup 2022 performances, weakened the team’s structure, while the Aguerd–Yamiq partnership forced the Marseille defender to constantly cover Yamiq’s costly mistakes.

Against Zambia, Regragui provided answers. Massina was excellent alongside Aguerd, the trio of El Aynaoui, Ounahi, and Saïbari gave Morocco technical dominance that made it extremely difficult to win the ball back, and Abde’s directness added danger on both wings. After a controlled 3–0 victory, Morocco finally seem to have found calm and balance — qualities that will be essential to survive the brutal Round of 16.

Against Tanzania, Morocco must avoid any excess of confidence, the very factor behind humiliating eliminations against Benin in 2019 and, more notably, South Africa in 2023 at this same stage.

Has Nigeria Become the Favorite?

Wounded by their failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Nigeria arrive at this AFCON as a wounded beast. Proud, combative, but above all immensely talented and stacked with attacking options, Nigeria impressed the entire continent during the group-stage clash against Tunisia.

Nigeria’s greatest strength lies in their ability to vary their attacking patterns. Whether through crosses aimed at Osimhen or long-range strikes from Iwobi and Lookman, Nigeria boast the best attack of the tournament with eight goals scored, tied with Algeria. Unfortunate finalists at the last AFCON, Nigeria now feel compelled to win the competition to erase the disappointments that have piled up since 2024.

Nigeria are among the top favorites thanks to their explosive style displayed against Tunisia, as well as individual talents capable of deciding a match at any moment.

Salah and Mané: The Last Dance in National Colors?

Both aged 33, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané are contesting a major tournament that could define the final chapter of their international careers. Undisputed legends for their respective national teams, both players are now approaching the twilight of their careers. Mohamed Salah is enduring a difficult season at Liverpool, while Sadio Mané plays in Saudi Arabia, in a league with a lower overall tempo.

For Mané, the question of a final dance is legitimate given the young players pushing for starting roles — notably Illiman Ndiaye and the electric substitute Ibrahim Mbaye. Salah, meanwhile, is weighed down by his relentless pursuit of a major trophy with Egypt. Failing to win silverware with the most decorated national team in AFCON history would be harshly judged on a continent where the Africa Cup of Nations carries enormous symbolic value.

In that sense, Egypt appear committed and competitive — not spectacular in their play, but resilient and capable of grinding out results, as shown by their 10-versus-11 victory against South Africa. Still, when comparing Egypt to Senegal, Salah to Mané, logic leans toward Senegal as the team most likely to offer their legend one final, victorious dance.

Table of Round of 16 : predictions