Third place is not as safe as it looks. Juventus sit on 68 points at the Allianz Stadium, but AC Milan (67 pts) and AS Roma (67 pts) are right behind them with two rounds left to play. Luciano Spalletti’s side bounced back with a 1-0 win at Lecce last week after back-to-back draws against Hellas Verona and AC Milan, but their hold on a Champions League berth is thin. Fiorentina, sitting 15th on 38 points, travel to Turin with nothing concrete left to fight for and a run of form that has produced one win in their last five outings.
What’s at stake
Juventus are third in Serie A with 68 points, one point ahead of both AC Milan and AS Roma, who are level on 67. Como sit sixth on 65 points. That three-point cushion separating Juve from fourth place means dropping points here could hand the advantage to rivals who have every reason to keep pushing. A direct Champions League qualification spot is the prize; anything lower risks a playoff route or a drop to Europa League football next season.
A Juventus win effectively makes their third-place finish close to certain depending on other results, lifting morale heading into the final day. A draw or defeat, combined with wins for Milan or Roma, compresses the table to a point where the final round becomes genuinely tense. For Fiorentina, the match carries lower immediate stakes; they are 10 points clear of the relegation zone with two games remaining, which means their league status is already settled. Cesare Prandelli’s side can play with freedom, which in itself can be a dangerous dynamic for a home team that needs every point.
How they got here
Juventus have put together a solid recent sequence: wins at Atalanta and Lecce bookend draws against AC Milan and Hellas Verona, giving them a WDDWW record across their last five. The Lecce win was narrow but professional, and it steadied the mood at the club after consecutive draws had allowed the chasing pack to close the gap. They have scored 59 goals this season and conceded just 30 across 36 matches, the second-best defensive record in the top three. Fiorentina’s last five tells a different story: a 4-0 defeat at AS Roma on May 4 exposed defensive vulnerabilities that a 0-0 home draw against Genoa did little to address. Their overall record reads 8 wins, 14 draws and 14 losses, with 49 goals conceded.
Juventus sit third on 68 points, one ahead of both AC Milan and Roma. Como, in sixth, are on 65. The gap between third and sixth is just three points with two rounds remaining, making every result in the top six relevant. Fiorentina in 15th are on 38, a full 30 points behind Juve but also safe from relegation given that gap above the drop zone.
Key battle to watch
The central tactical question is whether Fiorentina’s attacking players, led by Moise Kean and Albert Gudmundsson, can exploit Juventus on the counter. Juve have been solid defensively all season, but their recent draws suggest moments of hesitation in the final third. Fiorentina’s DLDD run has been built on a rigid shape that blocks central lanes, and if Juventus struggle to break that down early, Spalletti’s side could find themselves chasing the game against a team with nothing to lose. Koopmeiners and Locatelli will need to control the tempo in midfield and prevent Fiorentina’s transitions from becoming dangerous.
Key Stats
Our Prediction
Juventus have enough defensive solidity and home advantage to take three points, and the pressure from the chasing pack is likely to sharpen their focus rather than freeze them. Fiorentina’s lack of cutting edge in recent weeks, with just two goals scored in their last five league outings, points to a low-scoring match that Juve control without necessarily looking convincing. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, though a Fiorentina side playing without pressure could nick a result if Juve’s hesitancy in front of goal returns.