Just hours before the Community Shield final between Manchester City and Arsenal, on Sunday at 9 a.m. U.S. time, a strange statistic is hanging over this matchup. Presented as the traditional curtain-raiser to the English season, the Community Shield is often considered a symbolic trophy, or even simply an upgraded preseason game. Yet its recent history has given rise to a genuine “curse”: winning the Community Shield has rarely been a sign that a team will go on to win the English championship a few months later.
What is the Community Shield’s curse ?
Since 2011, the trend has been particularly striking. Of the teams that have won the Community Shield, only one has subsequently gone on to become Premier League champion during the same season: Manchester City in 2018-19. That year, Pep Guardiola’s side defeated Chelsea 2-0 at Wembley before winning the league at the end of an extraordinary battle with Liverpool, ultimately finishing one point ahead of the Reds.
All the other Community Shield winners during that period failed to lift the Premier League trophy. Manchester United in 2011 had beaten Manchester City before seeing their neighbors snatch the league title on goal difference. In 2012, City defeated Chelsea but finished 11 points behind United. Arsenal has also fallen victim to the trend several times: the London club won the Community Shield in 2014, 2015, and 2017, but never won the Premier League during those seasons.
The trend continued with Leicester in 2021 and Liverpool in 2022. The Foxes, despite beating Manchester City thanks to a late penalty from Kelechi Iheanacho, finished only eighth in the league. A year later, Liverpool also defeated City in the Community Shield before enduring a difficult season and finishing outside the Top 4.
The figure alone sums up the strange nature of this story: of the 13 most recent Community Shield winners listed by FourFourTwo, 12 did not win the Premier League the following season. Arsenal has been particularly affected, winning five editions before going through a season without becoming English champions. Manchester United has experienced the same situation three times, while Manchester City has gone through it twice.
But this “curse” obviously should not be taken literally. The Community Shield pits the English champions against the FA Cup winners, or the Premier League runners-up when the champion has completed the domestic double. It therefore consistently brings together teams that have already enjoyed an exceptional season. The fact that most of them do not win the league a few months later is also a matter of statistical logic: competition remains extremely strong, and momentum can change very quickly.
That is precisely what makes the matchup between Manchester City and Arsenal particularly interesting. The two clubs are once again meeting in a game that could, according to this strange tradition, serve as an omen for the season ahead. Manchester City will look to escape this reputation, while Arsenal will have to hope that a potential victory does not mark the beginning of another curse story. One thing is certain: even before the opening whistle, the Community Shield has already added another dimension to a rivalry that could once again shape the title race.