Four days after being taken apart 3-1 by FC Cincinnati at home, Atlanta United FC travel to Saputo Stadium still searching for answers. Gerardo Martino’s side have now lost two of their last five Eastern Conference outings and sit 14th in the conference on 27 points, just three points above CF Montreal. The hosts are in no better shape, having dropped a 1-2 road result to Toronto FC last Saturday. Two teams that cannot afford too many more slip-ups face off in Round 29.
What’s at stake
With nine spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs available, the math is uncomfortable for both clubs. Nashville SC lead the conference on 63 points, and the ninth-place cutoff currently sits at FC Cincinnati’s 36 points after 27 games. Atlanta United, on 27 points from 28 matches, trail that ninth spot by nine points. CF Montreal, with 24 points from the same number of games, are a further three back. Neither side is positioned to threaten the playoff places in any comfortable way, but a run of wins could at least close the gap and keep the pressure on the clubs directly above them.
For Atlanta, losing this fixture would put further distance between themselves and the top nine and would make an already narrow path even harder to navigate. For Montreal, a home defeat would drop them further behind their Eastern Conference rivals and extend what has been a difficult run of league form. A win for either side matters less as a title-race contribution and more as damage control after a rough patch.
How they got here
Montreal’s last five competitive results read W-L-W-L-L when sorted from oldest to most recent in MLS play. Their sole bright spot in that stretch was a 3-1 home victory over FC Cincinnati on September 26, sandwiched between a 0-2 loss to Columbus Crew and the defeat in Toronto. Atlanta’s comparable run tells a similar story: a win at Portland on September 20, two draws bookending it, and then the heavy 1-3 loss to Cincinnati at home to close out Round 28.
In the Eastern Conference table, Atlanta sit 14th on 27 points and Montreal 15th on 24. Both clubs are in the lower half of a 15-team conference, well outside the nine qualifying positions. The gap to ninth-placed FC Cincinnati (36 points) is nine points for Atlanta and 12 for Montreal, with the season heading into its final stretch.
Key battle to watch
Atlanta’s attack has produced only 33 goals in 28 games, one of the lower returns in the conference, and the Cincinnati game exposed real defensive fragility with 48 goals conceded on the season. Montreal have shipped 56 themselves, the worst in the table among the teams near the bottom. Whichever midfield unit can control the tempo at Saputo Stadium will likely dictate the result. Atlanta carry Alexei Miranchuk and Miguel Almiron as their primary creative threats, and if interim coach Philippe Eullaffroy’s Montreal side can press high and disrupt service to those two, they give themselves the best chance of turning three points in front of their home fans.
Key Stats
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Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Both sides arrive at Saputo Stadium low on confidence after losses four days ago, and the head-to-head record slightly favors Atlanta, who have won five of the last ten meetings. That said, Montreal at home have shown they can hurt teams, as their 3-1 win over Cincinnati demonstrated in late September. Expect a tight, low-scoring game where the side that avoids defensive mistakes first will take the points, and Atlanta’s slightly better goal differential gives them a marginal edge on the road.