Australia will look to build on their clean sheet victory against the USA and secure their knockout-round hopes with another win, while Paraguay desperately need three points to keep their tournament alive after an opening loss to the Americans. Both sides know that positive results are crucial in this expanded World Cup format where even third-place finishers can advance, but a victory here would represent a knockout lifeline for the Socceroos and a potential turning point for Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay.
Six days after shutting out the USA 2-0 in a Group Stage – 2 result that changed the conversation around this Australian side, Tony Popovic’s Socceroos head to Levi’s Stadium needing points to keep their knockout-stage hopes alive. Paraguay arrive in a different situation entirely, having scraped a 1-0 win over Türkiye five days ago after a 4-1 hammering from the USA in the opener. With the group standings showing Mexico already through on six points and South Korea sitting second on three, neither team can afford to drop this one if they want any realistic path forward.
What’s at stake
Mexico has already locked up first place in the group with six points from two games. South Korea sits second on three points, while Czechia and South Africa each hold one point. Paraguay and Australia’s standings within the group are not confirmed in the available data, but both enter this third group fixture knowing that a win is the clearest route to staying in contention for a knockout-round berth. The 2026 World Cup expanded format means third-place finishers can still advance, so the math is not simple, but positive results matter more now than ever for both sides.
A Paraguay win gives Gustavo Alfaro’s side genuine momentum and a shot at third place at minimum. A defeat, combined with results elsewhere, could effectively end their tournament. Australia, fresh off that clean sheet against the USA, know that another three points would put them in a commanding position. A loss, however, drops them into a fight with multiple teams for the third spot that may not be in their hands.
How they got here
Australia’s last five competitive results tell a story of inconsistency finally giving way to confidence. They beat Türkiye 2-0 in their World Cup opener, then dropped a 2-0 decision to the USA six days ago, sandwiched around a pre-tournament draw with Switzerland and a loss to Mexico in friendlies. The Türkiye win showed Popovic’s side can control a match. The USA loss showed they can also be undone when the opposition presses. Paraguay’s recent form is similarly mixed. They opened the World Cup with a 4-1 loss to the USA before rebounding with a 1-0 win over Türkiye five days ago. Prior to the tournament, Alfaro’s squad beat Greece 1-0 and lost to Morocco 2-1 in away friendlies.
Without confirmed group-stage standings for Paraguay and Australia from the available data, exact point totals for these two sides in the group are listed as TBD. What is clear is that Mexico’s six points place them well clear, and both Paraguay and Australia need to maximize their return in this final group match to have any meaningful say in the knockout-round picture.
Key battle to watch
Australia’s attack, which found a way past the USA’s defensive block two games ago, will test Paraguay’s backline that has now conceded four goals in two World Cup outings. The Socceroos carry enough pace and movement through Mathew Leckie and Awer Mabil to stretch a Paraguay defense that has been exposed on the counter. For Paraguay, the question is whether Miguel Almiron can generate enough in tight spaces to open Australia up, or whether Australia’s structure under Popovic, which kept a clean sheet against Türkiye, reasserts itself. If Australia can press high and win the ball in Paraguay’s half, they carry the bigger threat.
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Our Prediction
Australia’s defensive shape has been the more convincing of the two across this group stage, and the momentum from the USA clean sheet carries real weight heading into this fixture. Paraguay showed enough against Türkiye to suggest they will not fold, but their vulnerability on the counter has been a recurring theme. Expect Australia to control possession for stretches and press for a decisive moment, with a narrow win or draw the most likely outcome given both sides’ tendency to drift in and out of form across the same tournament.