Bayern Munich trail 5-4 on aggregate after a wild first leg in Paris, and now they must find a way to flip the tie at the Allianz Arena on May 6. Vincent Kompany’s side are chasing a place in the Champions League final, while Luis Enrique’s PSG arrive knowing a draw or a win sends them through. The first meeting produced nine goals and left nothing settled. Round two should be no different.
What’s at stake
This is a straight knockout: one team reaches the Champions League final, the other goes home. Bayern lost the first leg 5-4 in Paris on April 28, so they need to outscore PSG by at least two goals across the 90 minutes, or take the tie to extra time with a one-goal margin. PSG, sitting 11th in the UCL league phase standings with 14 points from their eight group-stage matches, have already punched well above that ranking to reach this stage. Bayern finished second in the same phase with 21 points, three behind Arsenal at the top, and have been one of the competition’s more reliable performers across the campaign.
For Bayern, elimination means the season pivots entirely back to the Bundesliga, where they sit second with 21 points, three behind Arsenal and three ahead of Liverpool. The Champions League final remains the bigger prize on the table. For PSG, reaching the final would be the culmination of Luis Enrique’s project in Paris, a first appearance on European football’s biggest stage since 2020. A loss in Paris would be damaging to morale but would not end their domestic season, where they still have Ligue 1 commitments.
How they got here
Bayern’s last five results show a side that can score freely but has had defensive wobbles at the worst moments. They beat VfB Stuttgart 4-2 at home on April 19, won the DFB Pokal semi-final against Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 on April 22, then edged Mainz 4-3 away on April 25 before the 5-4 loss in Paris on April 28. Most recently they drew 3-3 at home with Heidenheim in the Bundesliga on May 2, a result that underlined their struggle to hold leads. PSG, meanwhile, won 1-0 at Bayern in the UCL group phase on November 4 before arriving at the semi-final in patchy domestic form: a 1-2 home loss to Lyon on April 19, back-to-back Ligue 1 wins against Nantes (3-0) and Angers (3-0), then the 5-4 win over Bayern, before a 2-2 home draw with Lorient on May 2.
In the UCL league phase standings, Bayern sit second with 21 points from eight matches (7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss), with 22 goals scored and 8 conceded. PSG are 11th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 21 and conceding 11. The head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings favors Bayern 7-3, though PSG have won two of the last three encounters, including the Club World Cup in July 2025 (2-0) and the first leg of this tie.
Key battle to watch
Bayern’s attacking output has been exceptional this season. Harry Kane leads the UCL league-phase top scorers list with 13 goals, and his movement and hold-up play will be central to how Bayern create openings against a PSG backline that gave up four in Paris. On the other side, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has 10 goals in the competition for PSG and has been the most dynamic attacker in Luis Enrique’s system. If Kompany’s defensive shape can limit the Georgian winger’s impact on the counter, Bayern will have a better chance of controlling the tie. PSG are dangerous precisely when Bayern overcommit in attack, which, given the scoreline they need to chase, is exactly what Kompany will be forced to do.
Key Stats
Our Prediction
Bayern have the crowd, the incentive, and one of the best strikers in the competition in Harry Kane. But their inability to hold a clean sheet, evidenced by the 3-3 draw with Heidenheim just days ago, is a real problem when they need to keep PSG quiet while also chasing a deficit. PSG are compact and clinical on the break, and Kvaratskhelia gives them a constant threat in transition. Expect Bayern to come out aggressively and make this a contest, but PSG’s away goal buffer and defensive structure on the counter give Luis Enrique’s side a genuine edge to advance.