Carlo Ancelotti steps onto the biggest stage of his managerial career on June 13, not in a Champions League final but in a World Cup group opener at MetLife Stadium. Brazil face Morocco, the side that humbled them 2-1 in a 2023 friendly, in what is the defining first statement of their tournament. For Walid Regragui’s Atlas Lions, arriving off a 1-1 draw with Norway six days ago, this is a chance to announce themselves to an American audience that saw what they did at Qatar 2022. Group Stage points do not come back.
What’s at stake
This is a Group Stage Matchday 1 fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Brazil are placed in their group as one of the tournament’s headline names, carrying the weight of a nation that has not lifted the trophy since 2002. A positive result here sets the tone for the entire group phase; a stumble in the opener forces Brazil to chase points from the first week. In the expanded 48-team format, three sides advance from each six-team group, but losing to a direct rival in Match 1 compresses the margin for error significantly.
For Morocco, the stakes run in a different direction. They reached the semifinals at Qatar 2022, the best run in African football history at a World Cup, and this edition is their moment to prove that was not a one-off. A win here would immediately validate them as a genuine knockout-stage contender and send a message across the bracket. For Brazil, a defeat would generate immediate pressure heading into their next group fixtures and reignite questions about whether Ancelotti, a club football specialist taking his first senior international job, can translate his methods to a tournament setting.
How they got here
Brazil’s pre-tournament warmups have been a mixed picture. Ancelotti’s side won three of their last five friendlies, beating Egypt 2-1 seven days ago, Panama 6-2, and Croatia 3-1, but they were beaten 2-1 by France in March and drew 1-1 with Tunisia in November. The goals-against column in that France loss will have been noted. Morocco’s last five reads W-W-W-D-D: wins over Burundi (5-0), Madagascar (4-0), and Paraguay (2-1), with draws against Ecuador (1-1) and, most recently, Norway (1-1) six days out from this fixture. The Atlas Lions have been in solid, if unspectacular, form.
World Cup group stage standings are not yet established, as this is the opening match for both sides. Brazil enter as the higher-ranked side on paper and as one of the tournament favorites, but the head-to-head record between these two teams gives Morocco a reason for confidence.
Key battle to watch
Achraf Hakimi against Brazil’s left flank will be the tactical duel that shapes the match. Hakimi is Morocco’s most dangerous attacking outlet at right back, and how Brazil’s wide players and defensive structure handle his overlapping runs will dictate the tempo on that side of the pitch. If Ancelotti sets up with a high defensive line, Hakimi’s pace in behind becomes a genuine threat. Morocco’s 2023 win over Brazil showed they can absorb pressure and strike on the break, and Hakimi is central to how that transition works at pace.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Morocco are not here to make up the numbers, and their 2023 win over Brazil was no accident. That said, Ancelotti has assembled a squad with serious individual quality across the pitch, and the weight of a home continent tournament tends to lift South American sides early. Expect Brazil to control possession but find Morocco’s defensive structure harder to break than the scoreline against Panama suggested. A narrow Brazil win is the likeliest outcome, but a draw would not be a surprise.