San Diego shipped four goals to Vancouver Whitecaps just two days ago, a 4-1 road defeat that left coach Mikey Varas with little to show from a week that also included a draw against Seattle Sounders. Now the visitors head to Citypark on Halloween night to face a St. Louis City side dealing with their own turbulence. Yoann Damet’s team have lost three of their last four MLS outings and can no longer afford to treat the final weeks of the regular season as formalities, sitting third in the Western Conference with Houston Dynamo level on 51 points right behind them.
What’s at stake
St. Louis City sit third in the Western Conference with 51 points from 32 games, tied on points with fourth-placed Houston Dynamo. Vancouver Whitecaps lead the conference on 58 points and FC Dallas are second on 54, meaning the gap from third to first is seven points. The top seven clubs earn direct entry into the playoff round of 16, while ranks eight and nine go through the round of 32. Damet’s side are holding their playoff seeding for now, but the cushion above the cut-off has shrunk with each dropped result.
A win for St. Louis would give them breathing room over Houston and ease some of the pressure that has built up following back-to-back league defeats. For San Diego, 13th on 35 points, the Western Conference playoff picture is out of reach, but avoiding back-to-back defeats and finishing the season with some dignity matters for a squad that has conceded 62 goals this campaign.
How they got here
St. Louis City have won just one of their last five competitive matches. A home loss to Portland Timbers (2-3) on October 29 followed a 3-0 away defeat at Real Salt Lake four days earlier and a 2-3 loss at Minnesota United before that. The only bright spot was a scoreless draw in the US Open Cup against Columbus Crew. San Diego arrive in equally poor shape: a 1-4 hammering at Vancouver preceded draws with Seattle Sounders (2-2) and Los Angeles Galaxy (2-2), and their last five results read L-D-D-D-L.
St. Louis City are third in the Western Conference on 51 points, level with Houston Dynamo in fourth. San Diego are 13th on 35 points, well outside the playoff spots. Rafael Navarro leads the St. Louis attack and is third in the MLS golden boot race with 19 goals, joint with Philadelphia Union’s M. Iloski, behind only FC Dallas striker P. Musa (22) and Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi (25).
Key battle to watch
Rafael Navarro against San Diego’s defensive line will be the contest that most shapes this game. Navarro’s 19 league goals make him one of the most dangerous strikers in the Western Conference, and a San Diego backline that has already conceded 62 times this season has shown it can be opened up. If St. Louis can funnel the ball into Navarro early and stop the kind of passive, low-energy display that let Portland score three at Citypark, they have the quality to control this match. The question for Damet is whether his midfield, which has been leaky in transition over the last month, can protect the back four while giving Navarro the service he needs.
Key Stats
Match Context
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Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Both teams arrive at Citypark after confidence-sapping defeats, but the home advantage and the playoff pressure give St. Louis City a clear edge in motivation. Rafael Navarro has been too consistent a finisher to be kept quiet by a San Diego side that has leaked goals all season. Expect St. Louis to grind out a win, though whether the clean sheet comes with it may depend on how quickly they settle their defensive nerves after three shaky league outings.
San Diego
St. Louis City
Rafael Navarro