Three days after dropping a 1-2 home decision to Chicago Fire, Orlando City SC welcome Real Salt Lake to Exploria Stadium on Saturday still searching for their footing in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Lions have now won just once in their last four MLS outings, and sitting tenth in the East with 21 points, the cushion between them and the top nine is thinning. Real Salt Lake arrive in equally rough shape, having conceded four goals at home against FC Dallas just two days ago in a 3-4 collapse that did nothing to settle nerves in Pablo Mastroeni’s camp.
What’s at stake
The Eastern Conference sends nine teams to the playoffs, and right now Orlando City are on the outside looking in. Tenth with 21 points from 20 games, they trail ninth-placed DC United by three points and eighth-placed New York Red Bulls by four. The top six get a bye to the round of 16; positions seven through nine enter at the round of 32. For the Lions, the target at this stage is simply to stay in the conversation, not drop into the cluster of teams between 11th and 14th that are all bunched within two points of them.
Real Salt Lake sit eighth in the Western Conference with 28 points from 19 games, which currently puts them inside the playoff picture. A loss in Orlando, though, would allow teams behind them to close in and could flip their situation quickly given the Western Conference congestion. For Mastroeni, a bounce-back performance away from home after the Dallas nightmare would steady the ship; another defeat starts to look like a losing streak.
How they got here
Orlando’s last five reads W-L-D-D-L across all competitions: a Leagues Cup win at Monterrey was followed by back-to-back Leagues Cup draws and losses, and their return to MLS action has brought a draw with FC Cincinnati and then that defeat to Chicago. The Lions have conceded 50 goals in 20 Eastern Conference games, the worst defensive record among the top half of the table, and it is that number more than anything else that explains the gap between their points total and where they need to be. Real Salt Lake’s comparable stretch shows W-W-D-D-L in Leagues Cup and then back-to-back MLS draws before the Dallas thrashing. The 3-4 loss is particularly damaging because RSL actually scored three times and still lost, pointing to defensive problems that travel.
Orlando are tenth in the Eastern Conference, three points off the playoff line. Real Salt Lake are eighth in the Western Conference, inside the playoff picture by three points over ninth-placed Minnesota United. Neither side is in a comfortable position, but RSL have a seven-point buffer over Orlando in terms of raw points, and they have played one fewer game.
Key battle to watch
With Orlando shipping goals at a rate that has reached 50 conceded in 20 games, and Real Salt Lake arriving having just given up four in a single match, the contest between both defenses and their respective attacking lines is the one to track. Interim head coach Martin Perelman needs Orlando’s backline to impose some structure at home, while Mastroeni will be eager to see RSL’s attack, which managed three goals even in defeat against Dallas, punish whatever space Orlando’s high-risk defensive shape offers. If the Lions cannot hold a clean sheet or at least limit RSL to one, the gap to the playoff places only grows.
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Our Prediction
Both teams come in bruised and with clear defensive vulnerabilities, which makes a low-scoring, nervy affair the likeliest outcome rather than another open shootout. Orlando’s home record gives them a marginal edge, but their defensive numbers are hard to ignore. Real Salt Lake have the better overall points return this season and a slightly more balanced squad, so a narrow RSL win or a draw would not be a surprise. Perelman’s side may struggle to find the consistency needed over 90 minutes without a settled defensive unit.