Three days after grinding out a 2-1 win at Minnesota United, Atlanta United FC return home to Mercedes-Benz Stadium with back-to-back wins for the first time in months. That result, combined with a 2-1 home victory over New York Red Bulls the week before, has given Gerardo Martino’s side something rare this season: genuine confidence. Standing in their way Sunday is a Sporting Kansas City side that drew 1-1 with St. Louis City in their last outing, a result that did little to arrest a slide that now has Raphael Wicky’s team at the foot of the Western Conference.
What’s at stake
Atlanta sit 15th in the Eastern Conference on 18 points from 20 matches, six points behind ninth-placed DC United and the last playoff berth the East offers. With the conference qualifying nine clubs for the postseason, the gap is real but not yet impossible to close. Sporting Kansas City are in a worse position: 15th in the Western Conference on just 15 points after 20 games, 12 points adrift of ninth-placed Portland Timbers. Neither side is fighting for position at the top, but Atlanta at least have a path worth chasing.
A win for Atlanta would push them to 21 points and keep some pressure on the teams immediately above them, including CF Montreal, Philadelphia Union and Columbus Crew, all on 20 points. For Sporting, a point or three away from home would simply be about halting a collapse: they have won just once in their last five matches, shipping eight goals in that run. A loss here deepens the sense that this season is one to forget.
How they got here
Atlanta’s last five reads W-W-L-L-D, and the sequence tells an interesting story. After drawing at Charlotte and losing heavily at New England and Philadelphia, Martino’s side have bounced back with consecutive wins. The 2-1 away victory at Minnesota was particularly useful given how difficult that ground has been for Eastern visitors this season. Sporting’s last five, by contrast, reads D-L-L-L-W: one win at home to Minnesota on July 23, then three straight defeats including a 0-4 hammering at Los Angeles FC, before last week’s draw with St. Louis. They have conceded 49 goals in 20 Eastern Conference matches, a number that tells its own story.
Atlanta’s 18 points come from five wins, three draws and 12 losses, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. Sporting have four wins, three draws and 13 losses, scoring 19 goals. The momentum gap entering this fixture is pronounced: Atlanta are moving, Sporting are stalling.
Key battle to watch
Atlanta’s attack has clicked in their last two outings, and the presence of Miguel Almiron in the squad gives them a player capable of creating danger in tight spaces. Sporting’s defense has been the soft underbelly of their entire campaign, conceding at a rate that leaves Raphael Wicky’s back line with little margin for error. If Atlanta’s midfield, anchored by players like Sebastian Alzate and Alexey Miranchuk, can maintain the tempo they showed at Minnesota, Sporting will need a much tidier defensive performance than anything they have produced in recent weeks to take anything from this game.
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Our Prediction
Atlanta have the form, the home crowd and the psychological edge after two straight wins. Sporting have looked defensively fragile for weeks and arrive in Atlanta without a convincing away performance behind them. Expect Martino’s side to control long stretches of this game and find a way through a defense that has leaked 49 goals this season. Atlanta to win, though Sporting’s counter-attacking ability means this may not be the comfortable evening the home fans are hoping for.