Seven days after a 0-2 home loss to Columbus Crew, CF Montreal return to Saputo Stadium in no better shape on paper, sitting 15th in the Eastern Conference with 21 points from 26 games. That defeat extended their losing run to five straight in MLS, and interim coach Philippe Eullaffroy has had precious little time to find answers. FC Cincinnati arrive 33 points, nine spots higher in the table, trying to arrest their own slide before the playoff picture tightens any further.
What’s at stake
Cincinnati sit ninth in the Eastern Conference with 33 points from 25 games, one point clear of 10th-place New York City FC and inside the playoff line that cuts at nine qualifying spots per conference. The gap back to the cutoff is thin enough that two or three bad results could see Pat Noonan’s side drop out. A win in Montreal would put them on 36 points with a game in hand on several rivals above them, giving them genuine breathing room heading into the final stretch.
For Montreal, the arithmetic is bleak. They sit 12 points behind the ninth-place spot with a record of 5 wins, 6 draws and 15 losses. Eullaffroy’s focus will be less about destinations than about halting a collapse: five consecutive MLS defeats, 22 goals conceded in those 15 losses, and a goal difference of minus 22. A home win would not change their season’s trajectory materially, but it would at least stop the bleeding publicly ahead of the final weeks.
How they got here
Montreal’s last five across all competitions reads W-L-L-L-L, and the one win came in the Canadian Championship against Vancouver Whitecaps rather than in the league. Their three most recent MLS outings produced zero goals: 0-2 vs Columbus at home, 0-1 at Colorado, and 0-2 at Philadelphia. Cincinnati’s recent form is steadier but uninspiring: they drew 2-2 at Houston last week and 3-3 at home against Charlotte the week before, and were beaten 0-5 at Philadelphia and 0-4 at Nashville in late August and early September.
In the Eastern Conference, Nashville SC lead comfortably at 57 points. New England Revolution and Inter Miami share second on 46. Cincinnati’s ninth-place standing is flanked closely by New York Red Bulls on 33 points (also ninth on games played) and New York City FC on 32. The margin for error is tight. Montreal, by contrast, are 15th and last in the conference, eight points adrift of Columbus Crew in 13th.
Key battle to watch
Cincinnati’s attack, led by Kévin Denkey, will probe a Montreal backline that has shipped 53 goals in 26 games, one of the worst defensive records in the conference. The question is whether Montreal’s midfield, anchored by players like Djordje Mihailovic and Alistair Johnston’s replacements in the squad such as Wil Carmona and Samuel Piette, can compress space and limit Cincinnati’s runners through the middle. Cincinnati have been leaking goals too, 61 conceded this season, so this could be a genuinely open game rather than a one-sided shutdown. The key tactical duel will be between Cincinnati’s ability to play through Montreal’s press and Montreal’s need to stay compact enough to manufacture a rare clean sheet.
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Our Prediction
History does not favor Montreal here: Cincinnati have won six of the last ten meetings, including three straight competitive fixtures. With Montreal on a five-game MLS losing run and Cincinnati needing points to cushion their playoff spot, the visitors are better placed to take something from this game. That said, Cincinnati’s own defensive vulnerabilities mean Montreal may find the net for the first time in three league outings, making a narrow Cincinnati win or a draw the most likely outcomes rather than a comfortable away victory.