Six days ago, Croatia shipped four goals to England in their Group Stage opener, a 4-2 defeat that left Zlatko Dalic’s side with zero points and questions about a defense that has leaked goals in three of their last five matches. Panama are in the same boat after a 1-0 loss to Ghana, a result that made the Canalseros the first CONCACAF team to fall in this World Cup. At BMO Field on June 23, these two nations face each other knowing that another defeat puts a round-of-32 spot almost out of reach.
What’s at stake
Both Panama and Croatia enter matchday 2 with zero points. The group standings are not yet available for this pool, but the math is straightforward: with one match already played and two remaining, a loss here makes advancement extremely difficult regardless of the final-day result. A win sends the victor into contention; a draw leaves both teams needing a strong performance and favorable results in the last round.
For Panama, a positive result on home soil at BMO Field would be a statement moment for a CONCACAF nation that has now appeared in consecutive World Cups. For Croatia, who reached the 2018 final and the 2022 third-place game, falling at the group stage would represent a sharp decline for a generation of players who have been among Europe’s most consistent performers over the past decade. Luka Modric, who at 40 is almost certainly playing his last World Cup, would risk finishing without a single point in the tournament.
How they got here
Panama’s last five results read W, L, D, W, L. They beat Dominican Republic 4-2 and South Africa 2-1 in pre-tournament friendlies but drew with Bosnia and Herzegovina and were hammered 6-2 by Brazil. The loss to Ghana in the opener, 1-0, was a tight affair but one that exposed Panama’s limitations against organized defensive sides. Croatia’s recent run shows W, L, L, W, L: wins over Slovenia and Colombia sandwiched around losses to Belgium, Brazil, and now England. The 4-2 scoreline against England was flattering to Dalic’s side in terms of how open the game became, but it also showed Croatia can score goals when space opens up.
Neither team has standings data available for this group yet since both are at zero points after one match. Croatia’s drop in fortune from 2022 is the clearest backdrop: they went unbeaten through the knockouts two years ago, but this squad is aging and the performances in warm-up matches suggested defensive vulnerabilities. Panama sit in a similar position having only ever advanced past the group stage once, at the 2023 Gold Cup, in a major tournament.
Key battle to watch
The central midfield contest between Mateo Kovacic and Panama’s Adalberto Carrasquilla will likely shape the match. Kovacic, operating for Croatia in a deeper role, controls tempo and serves as the link between defense and attack. If Panama can disrupt his rhythm through Carrasquilla’s energy and pressing, they limit Croatia’s ability to build through the lines. Croatia gave England too much space in transition last time out, and Thomas Christiansen’s side will be looking to exploit exactly that if Dalic does not tighten the defensive shape. The question is whether Panama can generate enough quality in the final third to convert any pressure into goals.
Key Stats
Match Context
Our Prediction
Croatia carry more technical quality on paper, with Modric, Kovacic, and Andrej Kramaric capable of deciding a game at this level. But their defense has been porous in recent outings and Panama, playing in front of a North American crowd, will press aggressively from the first whistle. A narrow Croatia win seems the more likely outcome given their individual talent, but Panama have enough organization to make this uncomfortable and a draw would not be a surprise.