Two weeks after being beaten 4-2 at Philadelphia Union, Orlando City SC return to Exploria Stadium knowing that result left them in a precarious position in the Eastern Conference standings. Sitting seventh with 34 points, the Lions are technically inside the playoff cut, but the clubs immediately below them are closing fast. Columbus Crew arrive 13 days removed from a 2-1 home win over Inter Miami, a result that gave interim coach Laurent Courtois some breathing room, though the Crew still sit 12th and five points outside the top nine with work still to do.
What’s at stake
The Eastern Conference sends nine clubs to the MLS playoffs, and right now Orlando sit in seventh place, the final direct route into the 1/8-finals round. They have 34 points from 27 matches. Behind them, New York Red Bulls and New York City FC are both on 33 points, with FC Cincinnati one point further back but having played one game fewer. The cushion is real but thin, and a home loss to Columbus would invite real pressure from that cluster of clubs.
For Columbus, the math is straightforward: 29 points from 27 matches puts them five points off ninth place, which is the last playoff berth available. A win at Exploria would cut that gap and keep their postseason hopes alive. A defeat, and the path becomes significantly steeper with the regular season winding down.
How they got here
Orlando’s recent run tells a mixed story. Their last five results in all competitions read: a 3-2 win at Atlanta United, a 3-0 home win over Toronto FC, a 1-2 loss to Columbus in the US Open Cup, a 2-4 defeat at New England Revolution, and then that 2-4 loss at Philadelphia. Three wins in five sounds respectable, but both of those road league defeats were heavy, and the Lions have conceded 64 goals in the Eastern Conference this season, a figure that reflects the defensive vulnerabilities interim coach Martín Perelman has not yet resolved. Columbus, by contrast, have won their last two league matches, defeating CF Montreal 2-0 away and then beating Inter Miami 2-1 at home. Those back-to-back wins follow a pair of losses to New York Red Bulls and DC United, so Courtois’s side are a team that runs hot and cold.
In the Eastern Conference table, Orlando’s 34 points leave them 11 points behind sixth-place Philadelphia Union and 26 back from leader Nashville SC. The title race is irrelevant for both clubs here. This match is about the playoff line. Columbus sit 12th, five points adrift of the ninth-place spot currently held by New York City FC, with both sides having played 27 games.
Key battle to watch
Orlando’s defensive shape under Perelman will be tested by a Columbus attack that has found some rhythm over the past two weeks. The Crew beat Orlando 2-1 in the US Open Cup on September 16, so they know exactly where the home side’s back line can be exploited. With Orlando having conceded four goals in each of their last two away league matches, the question is whether they can at least be solid at home. If Columbus’s forward line, which includes Josef Martínez and Ansu Zaroury, can replicate the pressure they applied in that cup tie, Perelman’s side could face another uncomfortable evening. Orlando’s ability to control possession and limit Columbus’s transition opportunities may be the deciding factor.
Key Stats
Match Context
Standings
Head To Head
Our Prediction
Orlando have home advantage and the stronger standing, but their defensive record is a real concern and Columbus have beaten them as recently as three weeks ago. The Crew are in better form across their last three matches and will arrive with confidence. A tight game looks likely, with Orlando needing a strong first half to set the tone; if Columbus can stay level into the second period, their recent momentum suggests they are capable of snatching something from this fixture.
Columbus Crew
Orlando City SC
Josef Martinez