The group stage gave us everything. Forty eight teams became thirty two, Cape Verde wrote history as the smallest nation ever to reach the knockout rounds, Germany got humbled by Ecuador, and Lionel Messi rolled back the years one more time. Now the tournament turns serious. The margin for error is gone, and the contenders have started to separate themselves from the pretenders.
So who actually wins this thing? Here is where the favorites stand as the knockout rounds begin.
France look like the team to beat
No country left the group stage with more momentum than France. Didier Deschamps watched his side win all three matches and outscore opponents by a wide margin, capped by a thumping result against Norway in which Ousmane Dembélé struck three times. Kylian Mbappé did his part too, finding the net four times and looking every bit the best player on the planet.
- France goal differential in the group stage: plus seven
The numbers tell one story, but the feeling tells another. Les Bleus look balanced, deep and ruthless, the rare squad with a world class option at almost every position. They reached the final in 2018 and 2022, winning one and losing the other on penalties, and this group carries the same quiet confidence. Most sportsbooks now list France as the solo favorite at around +340. It is easy to see why.
The one cloud is emotional rather than tactical. Deschamps briefly returned home during the tournament following the death of his mother before rejoining the squad. How the group channels that in the pressure of single elimination soccer will tell us plenty. On paper, though, France are the team everyone else is trying to catch.
Argentina and Messi refuse to fade
The defending champions did exactly what champions do. Argentina swept Group J without dropping a point, and Messi, now 39, produced a stretch of scoring that pushed him past every name in the record books for World Cup goals. He even sat out the group finale and the team still won comfortably.
- Messi career World Cup goals: a new all time record
Lionel Scaloni’s side also caught a break. By topping their group, Argentina landed on the softer half of the bracket, opening the knockouts against debutants Cape Verde. The path is friendlier than France’s, and that matters when you are trying to survive a run of elimination games. At roughly +410, Argentina are the clear second choice, and a rematch of the 2022 final is very much alive.
The question is age and legs. Can a team built around a talisman who just turned 39 grind through a full month of knockout soccer? Messi makes anything possible, but the body keeps its own schedule, and the bracket only gets heavier from here.
Spain and England carry Europe’s hopes
Behind the top two sit two more European heavyweights, priced almost identically at around +650.
Spain looked imperious early, hammering Saudi Arabia and then grinding past Uruguay to win their group. Lamine Yamal remains the most thrilling young player in the world, and La Roja blend that youth with a level of control few teams can match. They are the reigning European champions for a reason, and a deep run would surprise no one.
England, as ever, arrive with talent and the weight of expectation. Harry Kane leads the line, the squad is loaded, and the draw has been reasonably kind. The eternal English problem is not the roster, it is the nerve. We have seen this team flatter and fade before in the moments that matter most. Until they win a knockout game that truly hurts, the doubt stays.
The wounded giants
Then come the names that always command respect, even when the form wobbles.
Brazil arrived under pressure and now meet a dangerous Japan side. The talent is undeniable, the consistency is not, and a price near +1300 reflects a giant that has not yet convinced anyone. Portugal still lean on Cristiano Ronaldo, who continues to defy the calendar, but a meeting with Croatia is no gift. Germany may be the most worrying of all after a defeat to Ecuador in the group stage, a result that exposed flaws no contender wants to show this early.
- Germany result against Ecuador in the group stage: a loss
These are not teams anyone wants to draw. They are also not teams playing with the swagger of a true favorite, which is why the market has cooled on all three.
The dark horses worth watching
The expanded format has opened doors that used to stay shut. The Netherlands, Colombia and Morocco all carry enough quality to ruin a favorite’s afternoon, and Morocco proved in 2022 that an African side can crash the semifinals and belong there.
And then there is the host. The United States rode a wave of home support and watched their odds tumble from distant longshot to around +3500 after winning their group, even with a stumble against Türkiye to close it out. A deep American run is still unlikely on talent alone, but the crowd, the travel advantage and a manageable bracket make this the best shot the USMNT has had in a generation.
- USA championship odds during the tournament: shortened from 60 to 1 down toward 35 to 1
The verdict
If the seeds hold, the dream final is the one everyone wants, France against Argentina, a sequel to the night in Qatar that many call the greatest final ever played. France have the depth and the form. Argentina have Messi and the softer road. Spain have the control, England have the squad, and both are waiting to pounce the moment a leader slips.
The smart money points to France. The heart, for millions, still beats for Messi. Either way, the next three weeks will sort the genuine contenders from the rest, and the whole thing gets settled at MetLife Stadium on July 19. The favorites have shown their hand. Now they have to deliver.